|By marybeth on 7/4/2012
Today's Gold/Silver Ratio: 57/1 UP
Gold: $1616.50/ Silver: $28.18
SGS Notes: Have had a little 'vacation' from newsletter lately, but events in the silver market and related economy/banking/financial worlds have been mushrooming… This week's newsletter is a 'catch-up' on things going on… what's happening in finance has a direct relationship in the precious metals marketplace… things are heating up on every side… and, with the CFTC gearing up to impose position limits, it won't be long until we see the coming breakout to the upside in precious metals.
A 'Lehman Moment' Will Ensure Gold and Silver Will Soar Again
Be sure that a huge volume of money printing will soon be on the way in Europe, and in the U.S. too, and the gold speculators' long awaited stimulus to drive prices up will at last become a reality.
Nowadays it seems that every time there is inaction, or minimal stimulative action, by the Fed that gold - and silver - take a dive. It appears to be long forgotten by the markets that gold performed extremely well throughout most of its bull run without overt Fed stimulus - but then gold investors on the fringe tend to be fickle animals increasingly overtly swayed by short term pronouncements with little cognizance taken of many of the underlying changes in the marketplace that have to be extremely bullish for precious metals. Not least of these factors include declining gold output in most of the world's major gold producing nations, hugely increasing Chinese demand - and perhaps most of all the fact that the global economy and banking system is teetering on the edge of a cliff with only a slight push needed to make it plunge to who knows where.
In his latest commentary on gold, Jeff Nichols - Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors and Senior Economic Adviser to Rosland Capital ponders on gold's performance vis-a-vis U.S. Fed pronouncements. "Gold shed more than $50 an ounce in a blink following last Wednesday's news from the Federal Reserve that America's central bank would not, at least not now, initiate another round of quantitative easing, opting instead for more muted monetary stimulus by extending its "Operation Twist" through year-end"
As Nichols then notes, "the recent correction in gold and silver prices has some precious metals pundits already writing obituaries for these metals. Last week, gold in New York was off more than three percent, falling from a recent high near $1,627 to $1,570 - just about giving up all of this year's gains and, worse yet, down some 18 percent from its all-time high last September. Meanwhile, silver fell by more than six percent from $28.75 an ounce to $26.90 - and at week's end silver was off some 3.4 percent for the year to date and more than 45 percent from its April 2011 peak."
But, Nichols avers, "This backtracking in gold and silver does not signal a new bearish phase for precious metals prices. At worst, it calls for more patience from investors and savers holding these metals as they await the next major move up in a still very much intact bull market. More importantly, the current weakness in gold and silver prices simply gives smart investors and fearful savers more time to buy the protection and financial insurance offered by these metals."
Most long term holders of gold invest in the knowledge that over time gold has proved to be a great wealth protector. In bull markets, yes it can generate short term gains and it is the prospect of these that brings in the speculators and leads to the kind of volatility which is currently affecting the gold and silver markets. Even the out and out gold bulls who predict soaring prices do so not in the belief that gold will provide speculative gains per se, but that fiat currencies will collapse and that say a 50% increase in the gold price will be due, in effect, to a 50% corresponding fall in the purchasing power of their local currencies. Indeed the real gold bulls believe that the increase will be far greater than 50% as fiat currency purchasing power collapses totally.
So what really is the chance of this 'worst case' scenario taking place? Unpleasantly and worryingly near. A sovereign default in Europe would not be purely a local phenomenon but would have global repercussions. A Greek default for example - which ultimately looks to be inevitable - if it happens soon will likely bring down some major European banks with it. The knock-on effect across the global financial system will be far worse with governments finding it increasingly difficult to find the wherewithal to meet their guarantees to major bank investors - and Greece is only a tiny economy. If much larger economies like Spain, or Italy, were to default, the impact on the global banking system would be truly horrendous.
All the European Community is really doing with its Greek bailouts is buying time in the hope that the banks will be able to make arrangements in the meantime to mitigate the impact of the pending default.
And the American investor can't just sit back in the hope that a European meltdown won't affect the U.S. economy and its banking system. It will. The global banking system is completely interconnected and bank failures in Europe will trigger similar failures in the U.S. Like it or not the U.S. Fed will likely need to help out Europe by pumping money into the system to prevent the dominoes starting to fall - a possibly futile gesture in the long term. The next dose of real QE from the Fed may thus not be to prop up the U.S. economy, but the European one too - and could be the biggest injection of new money into the economy yet.
Nichols puts it succinctly: "The timing of more monetary stimulus from the Fed - and the next major upward move in gold and silver prices - depends either on the economic news here in America (with bad news raising the chances of more quantitative easing sooner rather than later) or an impending financial disaster in Europe."
However he expects a round of QE in the U.S. regardless of the European situation - perhaps as soon as August given the continuing failure of the U.S. economy to show any real growth and unemployment remaining unacceptably high.
Nichols goes on "Despite yet another round of funding for Europe's sickest economies and banks - and regardless of whatever decisions are taken at the European summit this week - the Eurozone will continue to unravel. There's just no way that citizens of the peripheral economies will continue to accept austerity, collapsing economies, rising joblessness, and deteriorating living conditions for years to come."
"Sooner or later, I expect an impending if not actual default by one or another sovereign borrower or failure of one or another major European bank (what some are calling a "Lehman" moment recalling America's 2008 banking crisis) will trigger an unprecedented flood of new money from the Fed, the European Central Bank, and other central banks in Europe and Asia - assuring that gold and silver once again shine brightly."
This is perhaps an understatement. If this degree of monetary stimulation does come about the impact on gold and silver prices would be immense, and way beyond the power of governments, compliant central banks and their banking sector allies to maintain any degree of control of what is seen as the ultimate standard against which fiat currencies are measured.
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Now the FED gets Dragged into LIBOR-Gate
BigBanks Craft 'Living Wills' in Case They Fail
JP Morgan Trading Loss May Reach $9 Billion
One Billion Silver Ounces and 100 Billion Owners
Silver: A Tier 1 Asset for All
Precious Metals Paper Sellers Conveniently Trapped
US Dollar VS Gold: Epic Money Battle
We're About to Have the Most Devastating COLLAPSE in World History
Federal Reserve encourages Banks to Hold Gold
CFTC Sets Precedent and Lays Groundwork For Ending Silver Manipulation
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'The mob learned from Wall Street': Eliot Spitzer on the 'cartel-style' corruption' behind Libor scam
The Next Crash Will Be A Lot Worse!
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|By marybeth on 5/18/2012
Today's Gold/Silver Ratio: 56/1 UP
Gold: $1570.00/ Silver: $28.17
SGS Notes: We're sending out our newsletter mid-week this issue because there is so much going on right now we want you to be aware of. The JP Morgan news is HUGE… so we are featuring various articles this week about that and the implications for all of us.
There are also things happening in the Eurozone and in Greece that will affect us all dramatically. Hold on to your seats, the ride is about to get bumpy. We're looking for the end of the metals manipulation when physical silver prices detach from the ETC prices… should be soon. We saw silver spot dip below $27 this week, and, looking at the Gold/Silver ratio… it's up quite high - again. Remember: that ratio SHOULD be in the 16/1 range. Still a long way to go.
Dismal Metals Sentiment - Just What Bernanke Ordered
Since the dramatic drops the silver market saw in May and September of last year, prices in the precious metals market have been suffering from an excess of negative sentiment. This adverse perception is weighing on metal prices and keeping investor demand at bay.
Furthermore, although investors have continued to buy physical silver, the overall quantity being purchased has declined significantly, resulting in reduced support for the metal's price.
Nevertheless, the supply of silver is naturally limited by the quantity existing in the Earth's crust, despite ever growing industrial applications for the metal and rising price inflation. This key combination of factors still provides a strong fundamental basis for continuing to hold silver over the long term.
Could Weak Silver Sentiment be Conveniently Manufactured by Central Bankers?
Interestingly, this depressed silver market sentiment picture seems to be the perfect political tool needed during a U.S. election year to lend much needed psychological support to an ever weakening U.S. Dollar in terms of its ability to purchase goods and services.
Keeping silver and other precious metal prices low by depressing market sentiment, and perhaps even engaging in covert market intervention, seems suspiciously convenient after such an excessive amount of liquidity has already been pumped into the U.S. monetary system by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's highly controversial quantitative easing measures promoted by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
In addition, given the high amount of liquidity the European Central Bank needed to inject to deal with the debt troubled Eurozone countries like Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal, the increasingly obvious end result will be higher consumer price inflation, despite ongoing denials by central bank and government officials.
More QE Measures Likely as U.S. Economy Languishes in Election Year
Bearish for the Dollar, but very bullish for hard precious metal currencies like silver, is the view among many market participants that further rounds of quantitative easing or QE measures by the Fed are still practically a given during this election year to help lend support to a stubbornly struggling U.S. economy.
Nevertheless, allowing metals to trade higher based on their strong fundamentals would severely dampen the U.S. central bankers' ability to overtly increase the money supply in a substantial way.
EU Moves Toward Ratifying ESM to Provide More Permanent Bailout Mechanism
Another related development is that the European Stability Mechanism or ESM is expected to be ratified by July of this year, provided that enough of the 17 Eurozone member states approve of the bailout system to represent ninety percent of its capital commitments.
This new EU rescue program is expected to permanently replace the existing temporary European Financial Stability Facility within the Eurozone, thereby making meta-government bailouts an ongoing feature of the Eurozone's economy.
As in the United States, a reasonable person can only expect more liquidity increasing measures will soon also follow in the EU, thereby making an even stronger case for continuing to hold and accumulate precious metals like silver.
Does Jamie Dimon's Problem Actually Reside in SILVER DERIVATIVES?
Facts are facts. Since May 7th the price of silver has been mercifully driven down below $30 and on May 10th Jamie Dimon announced a $2B derivative loss. The price of silver is continuing to be driven down which in my mind means only one thing...JPM is losing the physical silver game and having to drive the price lower to get their hands on physical at a price that would reduce their overall losses. Never mind that the paper silver short will increase...this is now a physical game.
A clue lies in the COMEX data that shows that silver is in backwardization!
Soros Quadruples Gold Holdings
Gold, Money, and the Parable of the Three Little Pigs
The 2 Billion Dollar Loss By JP Morgan Is Just A Preview Of The Coming Collapse Of The Derivatives Market
Full Blown Bank Run In Greece
How The U.S. Dollar Will Be Replaced
This is Why World Markets are Incredibly Unstable
Will See Three Digit Silver In The Next Couple of Years
JP Morgan's Losses A Canary in A Coal Mine?
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|By marybeth on 2/7/2010
The Precious Metals RollerCoaster - From The Experts
Summary of information from Ted Butler, Larry Edelson, & John Embry
SG&S: With the high volatility in the precious metals market this past week, I thought I would provide you with some good resources to help you understand what this has been all about, and what forces are impacting the price of precious metals right now.
Larry Edelson - Financial Advisor, Weiss Research & Uncommon Wisdom Publisher.
Notes: Larry talks about how the markets are all in 'chop city', which means that when they are moving up and down quite violently they have a 'tendency to chop up short term traders with a lot of losses and a lot of sideways action'. He says this is due to the fact that many of the important cycles are now in a transition phase; indicating that the next big move, while certainly around the corner, is just not yet here yet. So all the major markets-all of them-- are floundering and swinging wildly trying to find their next positioning for their next big moves. This market could continue to be choppy for another 4 weeks.
He believes that gold on the short term will hold above its floor position swinging between the $1060 mark and the $1160 range…with wild swings. On the other hand, if it breaks through the support level of $1000, there will be no long term trend change. He is still very bullish on gold. On the flip side there is mounting evidence the gold will hold its own, and rise above the $1160 range and take off again.
As for the dollar, it's been 'rallying' lately because of the imminent threat of sovereign debt default in Greece, Italy, Spain & Portugal, which are valid concerns. So many European countries holding these currencies are being driven into the dollar… pushing it higher. However, the long term trend for the dollar is substantially lower. So this short-term rally for the dollar is not so much of a real 'rally' in the strength of the dollar, bur a reflection of the weakness of other world fiat currencies.
Ted Butler Butler Research
Notes: The Big Commercial Bank Shorts (i.e. JP Morgan) in silver have begun covering their short positions in the last few weeks. They have reduced their net short position by about 20,000 contracts (100 million ounces). This is the largest 2 week decline in the net short position in 2 years and represents about 80% of the total short position.
The good news, is that it's really improved the situation; they've liquidated just about as much of the technical accounts as they can liquidate. It's a very exciting development, and very encouraging because while painful, when they are done, they are unlikely to short again, paving the way for a price explosion.
And, from his recent newsletter,
"Silver is not money, it is Super Money, a kind of money that's different than any of us has ever experienced. It's sort of like there is ordinary man, but then there is Superman, who can bend steel in his bare hands, has x-ray vision and can leap tall buildings in a single bound. The main characteristic behind Super Money is that it is outside any government's edict. The value isn't based on what a government says. Simply stated, there is less silver available as money or investment to the world's citizens than at any point in history. Silver's rarity is unlikely to change in the relative near future. And remember - rarity is the first determinate of value.
As long as there are far more efficient mediums of exchange, like cash and electronic payments, silver or gold can't function as a realistic medium of exchange. This is Gresham's Law ; bad money will drive good money out of circulation. Here's a corollary to that law; Super Money drives itself out of circulation. As people start to realize the great difference that exists between money and Super Money, more demand for Super Money is certain.
Silver, more than gold, is the true Super Money. That's because, as time has evolved, there is less of it, relative to total world population. There is less above ground silver bullion in the world than there is gold bullion. Due to relentless industrial consumption over the past 70 years, there is 90% less silver bullion in the world than there was back then. This is something that cannot be said of gold.
Super Money is money that can't be created at will; it only comes from blood, sweat and tears, and at great expense. It is money that can't become worthless. It is money that can be passed to future generations without fear of what the future may hold. It is money whose value will be determined by the collective judgment of the world's citizens. One of the main factors that guarantees that silver is the Super Money of the present and future is how few people are aware of the facts surrounding silver. As those facts become increasingly known, the demand for silver must grow. The next time someone tells you that silver is money, please correct them. Let them know it is Super Money, and make sure you own as much as you can."
John Embry - Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Investment Management
Notes: John talks about what he considers to be the final death throes of paper currency market.
On gold detractors: There is a lot of angst among mainstream commentators fearing a drop of $300 or worse… these are the same individuals trying to frighten the public with prophecies of falls in the gold price. Despite this ongoing aggravation John is even more bullish on the prospects for gold than he was a year ago.
On how price affects psychology: This is a classic example of where gold has moved nicely higher but people are still afraid. Psychology is a big part of the arsenal of the anti-gold group. Price action creates commentary and if you can knock gold value you can come up with all sorts of reasons that are false which does keep people away from the metals. He says, "I think that's part of the plan".
He says, "I still have the strong feeling that the vast majority of people have no clue about gold and aren't aware that gold is experiencing an historic bull market with much, much further to go. What we have seen today is merely a prelude to the appreciation we are going to see in future years which is going to greatly exceed what we have seen today. "
On Gold re-establishing itself as money: If you go back and look throughout 6000 years history, gold has always been the mainstream currency . It always tends to come back and re-establish itself when fiat money founders or comes under suspicion. We're in a period right now with a lot of debt problems, and sovereign debt is becoming strongly suspect (TP Notes: with just this past week several European countries in danger of default having a dramatic volatile affect on the market). I believe gold is really going to come back to the forefront, because people aren't going to be able to trust any paper currency on this planet.
Parting shots: Most of the experts are saying this: Use this short term down-trend to buy as much as you can.
|By marybeth on 9/21/2009
Note from SG&S:
I've compiled a couple of articles together from this source this week because I felt they were both informative and apropos to the rise/fall/rise of silver spot we've seen in the last week. Many of you have commented on this; and, as investors, we all scratch our heads and say, "What's going on here?".
From my readings, it's clear the volatility is a reflection of 1) what's happening with US currency devaluation 2) what's going on in Asia, and more specifically, China and 3) what's happening with the manipulators (short-sellers) of precious metals in this country. (I will provide more info about this manipulation next time).
Without going into a lot of detail, let me summarize most expert writings of the last week: gold and silver are showing a lot of volatility, which is to be expected due to the issues of destabilization & devaluation of US currency, and we may still see some downward trend for the short term. However, longer term, there will be an upturn of price again and a climb to new heights… hang on for the ride! Silver will follow Gold… and often out-perform it.
As for my observations since I've been in this business: People tend to purchase NOT when price is low but when price rises. I find this inexplicable and counter to what conventional wisdom would dictate. Let me speak frankly when spot rises, Tea Party Silver will be forced to increase our prices as well. (We've had to do this in the past week, but have dropped prices back to previous rates now as spot has dropped back). The prudent thing to do would be to purchase on these down-turns… and on upcoming sales and introductory rates.
China: The World of Gold and Silver Demand Is Changing
Aug. 31, 2009
When the Chinese decide to invest, it causes ripples across the world...
TWO YEARS AGO on August 21 2007, China's government allowed its citizens to invest in an entirely new asset. It allowed them to invest in Hong Kong-listed stocks.
Hong Kong is a special region of China. It's one of the most dynamic, capitalistic places on Earth. The move from the government was a move toward "investment freedom" for the Chinese people.
On that day, Hong Kong's benchmark stock index rose 8.74%. Over the next two and a half months, it skyrocketed from 11,000 to over 20,000. It was a chapter in a story that you should get used to over the coming years; when the Chinese decide to invest in something, it causes giant ripples across the world. And this sort of situation is starting to happen again, this time in Precious Metals, and especially Silver.
The Chinese have a centuries-old affinity with Silver. It began in the 1500s with the explosion of trade with Mexico via the Spanish galleons. These sailing ships were the super-tankers of their age. They made one voyage per year, carrying tea, silks, and spices from Asia to Mexico. The ships returned to Asia with Gold and Silver. After the Chinese threw off imperial rule in 1912, the country used Silver money. Today, the Chinese word for "bank" (Yin Hang) means "Silver Okay". And now that China is becoming one of the richest, most dynamic capitalistic countries on Earth, this story is about to take a modern twist. The Chinese want Silver again.
Thanks to a decade of wealth accumulated by regular Chinese citizens, there is plenty of cash to chase good investments. As the famed global investor Jim Rogers points out, these people are the best capitalists in the world. They are great savers. Chinese people want their money to work for them...so they invest.
I recently watched a China Central Television piece on Gold investing. According to the program, there are some 400 million households in China, with an average ownership of about 0.1 ounces of Gold. The average Gold ownership in most emerging countries works out to about 1 ounce per household. The Chinese are beginning to make up that gap. From 2006 to 2007, domestic demand for Gold rose 60% to around 700,000 ounces. Experts continue to urge citizens to put 3% to 5% of their net worth in Precious Metals; and that is a conservative suggestion. Chinese government statistics show the average urban Chinese household has about $1,300 in disposable income to invest. While that doesn't seem like much, when you add up all those households, there's about $36 billion that could move into the next big investment opportunity - Precious Metals.
The government is now actively encouraging its citizens to Buy Gold and Silver. They recently unveiled Silver bullion for investing. The premise is that Gold was approximately 50 times more expensive than Silver in 2007...but is now 65 times more expensive. Silver is a bargain. The government is promoting Silver bullion as an investment for regular citizens. And remember, a bunch of Chinese students laughed at US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner this year when he claimed the dollar was safe. The Chinese know the value of real assets...real money like Gold and Silver.
What does this mean for Silver prices? It's impossible to say. But here's a little math that interests me. According to the Silver Institute, demand for Silver in 2008 (for industry, jewelry, and investing) was 832 million ounces. At today's price, that's an $11.5 billion market...or about one-third the annual discretionary capital available in China alone.
The most important thing to understand about this situation is the Chinese people become freer every time the government loosens up a restriction. These people couldn't legally buy Silver bars before. Now, they can. They're becoming richer...and they will continue to do so for decades.
Add this to a world already waking up to the grand currency debasement of the West, and you have a recipe for the continuation of the big bull market in Silver and other Precious Metals.
Don't Take Our Advice …
Sept. 21, 2009
The last time I signaled a major move pending, short-term technical indicators pointed downward, entirely contrary to a long-term bullish fundamental outlook that has only gathered strength in the meantime. After dipping to $870 per ounce in the weeks that followed, Gold held the $900 line throughout the notoriously weak summer months, and now has forged ahead to over $1000 Oz testing it all time highs while Silver has delightfully moved up some 20% plus in the same period of time. Both metals are well positioned to forge new all-time highs.
Precious-metal investors are tracking a hurricane, with a deteriorating U.S. dollar as its eye, a destructive wind of toxic derivatives swirling about, and a downpour of continuing reverberations for the economies in its path. It doesn't look so good from our perspective for the more traditional markets.
While the degree of certainty over a hurricane's track decreases as one projects further into the future, I believe the opposite holds true for Gold and Silver. I claim no prescience over tomorrow's Gold or Silver price, but my research continues to support an expectation that gold will surpass the $2,000 mark before this storm subsides and Silver will reach its all time high, well over $50 Oz.
I could point to technical analysis of Gold and Silver's contracting Bollinger bands and inverse head-and-shoulders formation, or the fascinating discussions and Elliott wave analysis that suggest an imminent breakout for both, but in truth Gold and Silver are about as predictable in the near term as Robin Williams with a movie script. Still, the irreverent speculator inside me can't help agreeing with John Embry, chief investment strategist for Sprott Asset Management:
"I think there is a very small probability that Gold will fall below $900 in the very near term. Monetary debasement is driving investment demand, western central banks are running out of available supply, eastern central banks, who are awash in dollars, want to buy and mine supply is cratering. We are close to lift off and the Gold price at worst will trade at several multiples of the current price."
Seasoned precious-metal investors maintain a staunchly long-term focus, and constantly hone their fundamental understanding to inform and tweak price expectations as the bull market roars onward. Choosing price targets will always be an exercise in speculation, and as with any storm those forecasts will remain subject to change, but that long-term focus is instrumental to success the way satellites are indispensible to meteorologists.
The truth is folks that you just 'gotta' step up to the plate and get involved. Buy into this market and create yourself a little sense of urgency. Fire all the guns up and begin to get motivated about the transfer of wealth that is occurring right now in front of your eyes. Silver and Gold are at the forefront of that transfer of wealth and I want you to take advantage of that.
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