SGS Notes: We're sending out our newsletter mid-week this issue because there is so much going on right now we want you to be aware of. The JP Morgan news is HUGE… so we are featuring various articles this week about that and the implications for all of us.

There are also things happening in the Eurozone and in Greece that will affect us all dramatically. Hold on to your seats, the ride is about to get bumpy. We're looking for the end of the metals manipulation when physical silver prices detach from the ETC prices… should be soon. We saw silver spot dip below $27 this week, and, looking at the Gold/Silver ratio… it's up quite high - again. Remember: that ratio SHOULD be in the 16/1 range. Still a long way to go.

Dismal Metals Sentiment - Just What Bernanke Ordered
Jeff Lewis

Since the dramatic drops the silver market saw in May and September of last year, prices in the precious metals market have been suffering from an excess of negative sentiment. This adverse perception is weighing on metal prices and keeping investor demand at bay.

Furthermore, although investors have continued to buy physical silver, the overall quantity being purchased has declined significantly, resulting in reduced support for the metal's price.
Nevertheless, the supply of silver is naturally limited by the quantity existing in the Earth's crust, despite ever growing industrial applications for the metal and rising price inflation. This key combination of factors still provides a strong fundamental basis for continuing to hold silver over the long term.

Could Weak Silver Sentiment be Conveniently Manufactured by Central Bankers?
Interestingly, this depressed silver market sentiment picture seems to be the perfect political tool needed during a U.S. election year to lend much needed psychological support to an ever weakening U.S. Dollar in terms of its ability to purchase goods and services.

Keeping silver and other precious metal prices low by depressing market sentiment, and perhaps even engaging in covert market intervention, seems suspiciously convenient after such an excessive amount of liquidity has already been pumped into the U.S. monetary system by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's highly controversial quantitative easing measures promoted by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

In addition, given the high amount of liquidity the European Central Bank needed to inject to deal with the debt troubled Eurozone countries like Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal, the increasingly obvious end result will be higher consumer price inflation, despite ongoing denials by central bank and government officials.

More QE Measures Likely as U.S. Economy Languishes in Election Year
Bearish for the Dollar, but very bullish for hard precious metal currencies like silver, is the view among many market participants that further rounds of quantitative easing or QE measures by the Fed are still practically a given during this election year to help lend support to a stubbornly struggling U.S. economy.

Nevertheless, allowing metals to trade higher based on their strong fundamentals would severely dampen the U.S. central bankers' ability to overtly increase the money supply in a substantial way.
EU Moves Toward Ratifying ESM to Provide More Permanent Bailout Mechanism
Another related development is that the European Stability Mechanism or ESM is expected to be ratified by July of this year, provided that enough of the 17 Eurozone member states approve of the bailout system to represent ninety percent of its capital commitments.

This new EU rescue program is expected to permanently replace the existing temporary European Financial Stability Facility within the Eurozone, thereby making meta-government bailouts an ongoing feature of the Eurozone's economy.

As in the United States, a reasonable person can only expect more liquidity increasing measures will soon also follow in the EU, thereby making an even stronger case for continuing to hold and accumulate precious metals like silver.

Does Jamie Dimon's Problem Actually Reside in SILVER DERIVATIVES?

Facts are facts. Since May 7th the price of silver has been mercifully driven down below $30 and on May 10th Jamie Dimon announced a $2B derivative loss. The price of silver is continuing to be driven down which in my mind means only one thing...JPM is losing the physical silver game and having to drive the price lower to get their hands on physical at a price that would reduce their overall losses. Never mind that the paper silver short will increase...this is now a physical game.
A clue lies in the COMEX data that shows that silver is in backwardization!

Bix Weir,
www.RoadtoRoota.com

Other Articles      

Soros Quadruples Gold Holdings
Wealth Wire

Gold, Money, and the Parable of the Three Little Pigs
Lew Rockwell

The 2 Billion Dollar Loss By JP Morgan Is Just A Preview Of The Coming Collapse Of The Derivatives Market

Full Blown Bank Run In Greece

How The U.S. Dollar Will Be Replaced

This is Why World Markets are Incredibly Unstable
Stephen Leeb

Will See Three Digit Silver In The Next Couple of Years
Stephen Leeb

JP Morgan's Losses A Canary in A Coal Mine?
Bill Moyers

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Bix Weir
JP Morgan Derivatives Book
Blowing Up

Lindsey Williams Part 1
Derivatives Market Collapsing & JP Morgan

Lindsey Williams Part 2
Derivatives Market Collapsing & JP Morgan

SGS Notes: Okay, we've crammed a lot into this newsletter, we admit it! But, if you've been following the economic news and the precious metals market, you'll be aware that there is a lot looming on the not-too-distant horizon. We feel the urgency to get you as much information as possible so that you can be prepared.

Two Scenarios For Next Precious Metals Rally (Part I)
Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls, Canada

Let me preface this piece by first stating that my reason for writing it was not to induce people to guess which scenario they found more probable, and then to place their bets beforehand. Rather, my purpose was exactly opposite: to prepare people for either scenario so that when they recognized one or the other unfolding they wouldn't do something stupid in a moment of panic (or greed).

Sadly, in our markets to "do something stupid in a moment of panic" generally means doing precisely the opposite of what one should be doing. This also explains why the bankers like to start panics. First of all, as the cause of these panics the banksters are neither "panicked" nor (obviously) surprised themselves. So they continue to operate calmly (in this feeding-frenzy) while the sheep make themselves especially easy to shear.

As a result of this never-ending game being played in our markets by the bankers, there is genuine utility in looking ahead (something the sheep almost never do) so that when events do unfold we will be prepared to act (calmly) - as opposed to reacting in panic (as the bankers desire).
With that preface out of the way, the next task is to explain/define these two, looming scenarios:

• The crash-driven rally
  
• The event-driven rally
  

Putting aside the fact that gold and silver are the most undervalued assets on our planet today; despite this ever-present truth the sheep generally need a "reason" to jump on the precious metals bandwagon. The irony here of course is that simply by jumping on the bandwagon the sheep supply the necessary momentum to drive prices higher - meaning that no "reason" is every truly necessary for gold and silver prices to go higher, in accordance with their ultra-bullish long-term fundamentals.
So the Catch-22 of the precious metals market is that we always need some catalyst to break gold and silver free of the intermittent bankster-created "log-jams" which have occurred in this market over the course of its 10+ year bull run, even though there is never any reason necessary to bid-up these grossly undervalued assets. In the last several years we have seen (arguably) three such catalysts. Two of those catalysts were events and one was a "crash".

Taking these catalysts in chronological order, the first of the three was the Crash of '08. Critics will argue that a "crash" is precisely an example of an event-driven catalyst. However, as I alluded to previously a market-crash is a particularly unique form of event, due to the extreme and unusual sentiments which accompany that event. The second reason to distinguish this catalyst from an "ordinary" event which serves to drive the market higher is that the circumstances prior to a crash will be markedly different from the circumstances of any other event-driven rally.

To begin with, one very likely clue that we will be on the precipice of another banker-created crash is that gold and silver (and likely all commodities) will begin to rally strongly without any identifiable cause for their strong surge in prices. To be more precise, the mainstream media (i.e. the propaganda machine) will not supply us with any "reason" for these soaring prices (other than pointing to their favorite scapegoats, the evil "speculators").

They will not tell us that those price increases are nothing but playing catch-up for the previous $trillions in money-printing. Understand that what responsible precious metals commentators generally tell their audience is that we accumulate gold and silver merely to preserve our wealth - i.e. we're not doing this (greedily) looking to turn a profit. However, the fundamental truth is that the decades of suppression, and the even more extreme manipulation of recent years mean that gold and silver are more undervalued today than they were at the beginning of this bull market over ten years ago.
Similarly, with the banksters' paper grossly overvalued, this means that most commodities should be soaring to much higher prices, simply based upon the long-term ramifications of year after year of hyperinflationary money-printing. Here we come to the ultimate fear of the banksters, and the political stooges who serve them: they know that the end of their entire, paper Ponzi-scheme will be imminent when prices for hard assets (i.e. gold, silver, and commodities) begin to soar without any explicit short-term causes.

Unlike the brainwashed sheep, they know their history. They know that the ultimate cause of all hyperinflation is a general loss of confidence in (worthless) paper - just as the Dutch "lost confidence" in their precious tulips 400 years ago. Thus when prices begin soaring (i.e. the paper begins to crash) "for no reason", the real reason will be that people are losing confidence in the paper and dumping it in favor of hard assets.

This precisely describes circumstances in the spring and summer of 2008, and explains why the bankers decided that nothing less extreme than a "crash" would suffice to put the brakes on the looming hyperinflation. What this means is that unlike an ordinary event-driven rally for the precious metals sector we will be tipped-off prior to the next crash being manufactured: we will see another instance of spiraling gold, silver, and commodities prices with charts showing a clear exponentially-rising pattern.

The banksters will not sit back quietly and allow their $100's of trillions in Ponzi-paper to evaporate. Inflicting severe economic hardship on 100's of millions means nothing to them. Indeed, the bankers have an even more extreme "solution" for dealing with a pending hyperinflation scenario: starting a war.

Hitler started World War II to cope with the aftermath of Germany's hyperinflation from the Weimar Republic. However Hitler wasn't a banker. He had no mountains of worthless paper to protect. His only motives were to create a smoke-screen for the economic ruin from the preceding hyperinflation and to cover-up his own economic mismanagement, which is an inherent aspect of all Fascism.
With the bankers (and the ultra-wealthy Oligarchs) being firmly in charge of our governments today, war would be a tool that they would use undoubtedly before any hyperinflation reduced their mountains of paper to what it really is: "Monopoly money". Thus should we see another repeat of the explosion in gold, silver, and commodities prices which took place in the spring and summer of 2008, many would suggest that we should hope for a market crash.

Those with the inclinations to be "traders" (i.e. the greedy) will be sensing opportunity at this point. They will note that we will have a clear warning before the next crash is manufactured. They will note that such a crash will occur when we see a distinctive repeat of what occurred in gold, silver, and commodity markets in the spring/summer of 2008. They will look at the charts for gold and silver for 2008, and they will think to themselves "sell".

This would be a colossal failure of analysis, and another triumph for naked greed. Simply because identical circumstances cause the bankers to use an identical "tool" (i.e. a market crash) does not mean that the consequences of their reckless intervention in markets will be identical.

Our economic circumstances in 2012 are enormously different than in 2008. Today our economies are all much weaker. Today our economies are all much less solvent. These two different dynamics both have significant implications in any crash scenario. Create a crash in a (relatively) strong economy and there is resistance; that is, that residual economic strength will push back against the downward economic pressure of a crash - slowing the descent and stretching-out the length of time of that downward slide before "bottom" is hit.

Conversely, create a crash in a weak economy and all you have is free-fall. We would (will?) see a crash which is much faster, and much more severe. This alternately means that anyone attempting to "time" this event by selling their gold/silver and then (assuming they can) buy it back it cheaper could miss badly in either direction.

The fact that a 2012 crash would tend to be a much faster event would mean that it could be over before all the would-be traders are expecting. They are sitting-and-waiting (for even cheaper prices) with their pile of depreciating paper, while prices have already began bouncing back. And as with the Crash of '08, the rebound in gold and silver prices will be at least as rapid as their plunge, and likely even more rapid - leaving all those greedy "traders" still waiting at the station.
On the other hand, with a crash in 2012 undoubtedly a much more severe economic event, would-be traders could easily jump back into the market too soon - and do their buying with prices about to plunge much lower. We can assess those relative probabilities by looking at our other different dynamic for 2012: much less solvent governments.

The Crash of '08 sparked the Money-Printing of '09, which in turn has directly led to the Debt Crisis of 2010-to-present. The "64-trillion-dollar question" today is this: if a crash in 2008 caused a debt-crisis (when our economies were relatively strong), what would a crash do in 2012 - with our economies all weak, and all of Europe already in a debt-crisis. The answer to that question is really simple. Everybody is Greece.

The combination of an even worse crash, with much weaker economies, already in the midst of a debt-crisis means that either the money-printing would have to be much, much more extreme (i.e. guaranteed hyperinflation) or it would fail to halt our economic crash despite the extreme money-printing.

Understand that every new "dollar" of paper created is created with more debt. Understand that our interest rates are already as low as they can go, and still we see the debt-dominoes going bankrupt one-by-one. So doing much more money-printing means piling on exponentially more debt onto already insolvent economies while revenues are simultaneously plummeting lower. This precisely describes what just took place in Greece.

So when "everybody is Greece" (including the world's worst debt-sinner, the United States) what are the holders of $10's of trillions in Western bonds going to do? Will they stoically and nobly "go down with the ship" like the Captains of Finance that they are? Or will they all scramble for the nearest "lifeboat" like proverbial rats deserting that sinking ship? I'll let readers answer that one for themselves.

In the Crash of '08, it was only the gold-bugs (and silver bulls) who were thinking to themselves "paper is going to zero". The sheep were still all running towards that worthless paper. In any crash in 2012 (or 2013) it will be obvious to everyone that "everybody is Greece", and all that paper is going to zero.

What this means is that in any future crash event, any sell-off in gold and silver will end very quickly and very abruptly, when all of the "rats" from the bond-market (belatedly) try to swap (worthless) paper for (valuable) metal. Naturally, all of the extreme money-printing taking place means that the underlying paper currencies are just as worthless as the bonds.

This should mean that all the sheep would be dumping their paper currencies for gold and silver too. However, that would imply rational thinking. Since the panic of any crash event means the opposite of rational thinking, the holders of our paper currencies will undoubtedly do even worse than the bond-holders.

As I continue to point out to readers, it would take much less than 10% of these paper-holders turning toward the 5,000 security of gold and silver to cause precious metals prices to soar to many multiples of present prices (especially in the tiny silver market). This comes at a time when people are only holding about 1/10th as much precious metals in their portfolio as is the historic norm.
The question for the precious metals bears and skeptics is this: if gold and silver prices can go on a 10+ year bull-run while ignorant Western investors have under-owned this asset class to the greatest degree in history, what happens when all of the "stupid money" of the West belatedly rebalances their holdings?

As an aside, this raises a secondary question: how can the drones in the mainstream media continue to talk about "bubbles" in gold and silver while these assets have never been so under-owned by Western investors?

When thinking investors begin to ask (and answer) these questions for themselves, their strategy for any crash scenario should be clear: don't idiotically sell the gold and silver they are already holding, greedily hoping they can cash-in on some "obvious" short-term trade. Rather they should be buying more gold and silver in any crash, even in the face of rapidly falling prices. They would know that any plunge would be very short in duration, and will reverse higher very, very strongly, when all of the paper-holders finally begin to "see the light".

Naturally, the my hope and that of all other gold and silver bulls is that we can see gold and silver begin their next, inevitable rally from some event which inspires much less fear and economic carnage than an economic crash. In Part II, I will flash-back to two such events, and note both their significant similarities and significant differences.

To read Part 2 click here

New At SGS!

Introducing our new Silver Bullet !

Whether you are protecting yourself from Werewolves or Inflation, this Silver Bullet is for you! We are excited to introduce this Silver Bullet novelty item. This item includes a set of TEN 1/10 oz .999 fine Silver Walking Liberty rounds, contained in a semi-transparent 12 gauge shotgun shell.

This item is not only a great investment in precious metals, it makes for a great conversation piece. If your group or organization would like to customize this item, we will work with you to create a custom label with your favorite slogan or logo. (Additional pricing will apply)

We also have the 1/10 oz rounds available for purchase individually on our site now. These are the size of a dime and a good alternative to junk silver which is only 90% pure.

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Alf Field

The Implications of China Paying in Gold
Jim Sinclair

Greenspan's Golden Secret
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Greenspan's Golden Testimony
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Gold & Economic Freedom
Alan Greenspan

Gold & Silver as Parallel Monetary Systems
Hugo Salinas Price

US Dollar VS Gold: Epic Money Battle
USA Watchdog

Gold "Bargain of Lifetime" As Gold Standard Inevitable, Possibly Within Year - $10,000/oz Looms
Goldcore.com

Golden Dreams & Global Nightmares
Alex Stanczyk

Harvey Organ:
Get Physical Gold & Silver!
Adam Taggart

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Why Gold & Silver?
Mike Maloney

The Golden Revolution

Bill Murphy Pounding Away at the Gold Cartel!

On the lighter Side… ; - )

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Quote of the Week

"Paper money has had the effect in your state that it will ever have - to ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice."

- George Washington

 Where a Nation's Gold and Your Gold Should be Held - Part I

Julian Phillips
Proprietor at Global Watch - The Gold Forecaster

Purpose of Holding Gold
Most central banks hold their nation's gold in the vaults of the world's leading financial centers' central bank vaults. These include New York, London, and Canada among others. In a peaceful, cooperative world, this is sensible as one of the prime purposes of central banks holding gold is to cover the nation's international trade payments when their own currency becomes unacceptable and their reserves of foreign exchange are depleted. By positioning the gold outside the country, it's instantly accessible for payments or guarantees of payments.

Dangers of a Nation Holding Gold in Another Nation's Central Bank
In the last week we have heard the announcement that Iran has (according to them) 907 tonnes of gold. The developed world has just outlawed Iran dealing in gold and silver (there are other places, where if they wished to do so they will be able to trade). With their gold inside Iran, it is outside the reach of the developed world though. If they had held their gold in the world's main, developed world vaults that would have been frozen along with Iran's other overseas assets. We may not agree to Iran's politics and attitudes, but there is a lesson to be learned here.
Ownership implies the freedom to do what you want with an asset. In this case we are talking about a nation's assets. The handling of Iran's assets by freezing of their assets shows that other nations can interfere with that freedom. Governments feel free to impose restraints on other people's assets within their jurisdiction. It is this concept of a right to restrain the rights of ownership that will prove a growing issue.

With the world changing from an under-developed world with a developed world to an emerging world drawing down power and wealth from the developed world, there are many changes taking place which will lower the levels of international cooperation in the days ahead as political, religious, monetary and economic pressures rise.

One nation that has foreseen these pressures coming is Venezuela. Their 160 tonnes of gold was held in Canada, the U.S. and European vaults and out of their full control. Their policies -including the nationalization of gold mining and export-have proved unpopular in the developed world too. With Venezuela being an oil exporter primarily, the unpopular President (outside the nation) felt it prudent to ship his nation's gold back home. The process began a few months ago.

Venezuela's Gold Comes Home
Venezuela has now succeeded in bringing its 160 tonnes of gold from the developed world's central bank vaults (i.e. Canada, U.S. and Europe). There's no doubt that such a move does secure the nation's monetary sovereignty. Now, Venezuela's gold cannot be subject to the political wishes of the U.S., Canadian or European governments.

Furthermore, there's a potential 3,000 tonnes of gold under the ground in Venezuela and the likelihood that the government will take that into their vaults over the time it takes to mine it. They will then be in a position to take the U.S. dollars they receive for their oil and pay their miners for the gold, so diversifying their reserves away from currencies and into gold. If they do that, then this is one more source of supply that will be removed from the gold market.

Whatever the nation's politics, it is a central banker's duty to do all in its power to protect its nation's gold and foreign exchange reserves in terms of control and value. With dollar hegemony, a great deal of that power remains in the hands of the issuer of that currency. As sovereignty issues grow, it is becoming incumbent on central bankers to do more to protect nation's reserves. The most vulnerable nations are those whose politics differ drastically from the developed world or those whose international trading is not dependent on the major developed world. After all, if you are a kind of economic colony of a major nation it will exercise its influence far more effectively through other routes.

The conclusion that best suits vulnerable nations logically is to hold as much of its gold at home. Its dollars have to be held in New York and its euros in Europe -something they can do little about. But a nation like Venezuela with its reserves of gold at home and a 'natural' diversifier in the gold under the ground, is acting in that nation's interests in building up its gold reserves at home.

China Following the Same Path
China has outlawed the export of gold and vigorously broadened the number of banking import licenses for gold. The resulting flows of gold in with nothing coming out, is leading to the total national stock of gold in China rising fast.

" Last year saw around 360.96 tonnes of gold produced there with the government encouraging this growth of local production. But this figure may be a heavy underestimation as scrap and non-China Gold Association member's production is not included in that number.

" 490 tonnes of gold came into China through Hong Kong with more imports possible through other routes, not included in this total.

" At the start of 2012, demand for gold during the lunar New Year jumped over 50% pointing to much higher imports in 2012. These could lead to a jump of reported imports of 750 tonnes in 2012.
China is preparing Shanghai as the center for Yuan trading and as their leading financial center. Hong Kong is the current, financial center and has huge modern gold vaults already. We have issued an article in our newsletter Gold Forecaster giving our views on China growing to a second or first gold market hub in time. But we repeat that NO gold is allowed to leave the country! With privately held gold open to confiscation at some point in time, we consider the total gold held inside China as part of that nation's available stock of gold in their reserves.

Read Part II Here

New At SGS!

Introducing our new Silver Bullet !

Whether you are protecting yourself from Werewolves or Inflation, this Silver Bullet is for you! We are excited to introduce this Silver Bullet novelty item. This item includes a set of TEN 1/10 oz .999 fine Silver Walking Liberty rounds, contained in a semi-transparent 12 gauge shotgun shell.

This item is not only a great investment in precious metals, it makes for a great conversation piece. If your group or organization would like to customize this item, we will work with you to create a custom label with your favorite slogan or logo. (Additional pricing will apply)

We also have the 1/10 oz rounds available for purchase individually on our site now;

Quote of the Week

"Nothing is more important than balancing the budget with the least increase in taxes."

- Herbert Hoover, March, 1932

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Gold and Silver Manipulation and How They Do It
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BRICS Plan to Abandon U.S. Dollar Will Hurt U.S. and Help Gold
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Zero Hedge

Eric Sprott: Financial Train Wreck Coming Soon! Got Gold? Better Yet, Got Silver?
Eric Sprot

Silver Heading to $80 an Ounce
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How The Silver Manipulation Game Works
Ted Butler

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Silver Shortage This Decade,
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SGS Notes: This week the GATA Gold Rush 2011 Conference was held in London. GATA is the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committe (http://www.gatagoldrush.com/ ) ... and we've seen material in the past from Andrew Maguire, Bill Murphy, and Ted Butler and others who have been actively involved in fighting the precious metals' manipulation over the years. Speakers this week at the conference include such big names as James Turk, Eric Sprott, Hugo Salinas Price, John Embry, Jim Sinclair... you've read articles by these folks and others in the SGS Newsletter since we began it.

The issue of the possible re-monetization of gold and silver is a hot one as we watch fiat currencies around the globe crumble into ruin. It's been on our radar screen at SGS since we began in 2008. There are many credible experts that believe it is coming faster than a speeding freight train... Bix Weir, of Road To Roota, is one such person. He has long been associated with GATA. As the world wakes up to the fiat schemes of the central bankers, there will be a rush... supplies will be in limitation... prices will skyrocket...

Dorothy's Silver Shoes or The Re-monetization of  Silver Currency of the United States of America

Hugo Salinas Price

President, Mexican Civic Association Pro Silver

www.plata.com.mx

Download article + bonus article, Gold Standard Generator & Protection Of Jobs

Why not re-monetize the silver dollar? Re-monetization could put the silver dollar and its subsidiary silver coinage into circulation in parallel with FRNs – “Federal Reserve Notes”.

There are several reasons that make this action possible, and only one that might be considered as an unimportant material obstacle.

In favor:

The silver dollar is the money that is still the Constitutional “coin of the realm”, defined by Act of Congress as 371.25 grains of pure silver. (The Troy ounce contains 480 grains.)

The silver dollar is familiar or at least known to almost all Americans.
A considerable quantity of these silver dollars is owned by Americans.

The silver dollar is a cherished symbol of a great past.

The monetized silver dollar would ignite a desire to save such as America has perhaps never seen before. The very first thing that must be done, to encourage people to save, is to give them something worth saving. As the US government gallops toward the abyss of bankruptcy by unlimited spending, the American people desperately require a refuge for their savings!

In this writer’s opinion, a large majority of the American people can see themselves as owners of silver money and, if a poll were taken, one can imagine that most Americans would express themselves in favor of silver money. Not so with gold, towards which the American people have little emotional attachment: gold is seen as the money of the élite. William Jennings Bryan exploited this fundamental attitude of the American people with his “Cross of Gold” speech. (Note: this should not be taken as disparaging gold; it is simply the statement of an opinion about the attitude of Americans regarding gold.)

Against:

The silver dollar bears a value stamped upon it: “One Dollar”.

***

The branch of government which the Constitution has designated as the agency “to coin money [and] regulate the value thereof” is the Treasury.

If the Treasury were to monetize the silver dollar coin by attributing to it a monetary value in terms of FRNs - “Federal Reserve Notes” - the public would very probably ignore the inscription of “One Dollar” upon the coin and accept it as legal tender money for the amount of the Treasury quote given to it. It would not be necessary to explain that twice, to anyone owning a silver dollar coin! In a short time, people would regard the term “One Dollar” as the name of a coin, rather than as a numeric indicator of legal tender value.

Determining the value of the silver dollar falls quite nicely into the Constitutional mandate to the Treasury: “To coin money [and] regulate the value thereof…”

How would the Treasury go about determining a quote to regulate the value of the silver dollar? Let bureaucrats and lawyers write books about how it should be done; here it is in a few words:

Suppose the price of silver bullion is $35 per ounce.

The silver dollar contains 77.34166% of a Troy ounce.

$35 X .7734166 = $27.07, the value of the silver in the silver dollar.

The Treasury will quote the silver dollar’s value in FRNs, with a margin of 15%, and round the figure to the next highest multiple of four:

$27.07 X 1.15 = $31.13, rounded up to $32.

The silver dollar as a legal tender coin worth $32 FRNs. The American public would eagerly purchase these silver dollars, worth $32 FRN dollars, and which could be used for all transactions without any haggling. The silver dollar worth $32 FRNs could even be deposited for that value in banks, if anyone had a mind to do such a thing.

If the price of silver rose to $37.61, the margin of profit of the Treasury, or seigniorage as it is formally known, would be reduced to 10%; at that point, a new and higher quote would be issued, to restore the 15% profit of the Treasury:

$37.61 X .7734166 = $29.09 value of silver in the silver dollar X 1.15 = $33.45, rounded up to $36 FRNs - 36 being the next highest multiple of four.

Why “the next highest multiple of four”? Because by doing so, the result would be the re-monetization of the entire silver currency system of the United States as it existed up until the Sixties of the last century.

In the last example, the silver half-dollars would automatically be worth $18 FRNs, the quarter-dollars would be worth $9 FRNs, and the dimes would be worth one-tenth of the silver dollar: $3.60 FRNs.

As pointed out in many articles at www.plata.com.mx, in the section in English, the last quote of the Treasury would remain firm and not subject to reduction, just as if the value in FRNs had been re-stamped upon the coin. The Treasury quote would simply take the place of a stamped quote, which cannot be reduced. The Treasury quote would only be raised, to follow the rising price of silver. In this way, the silver dollar would be a coin that would remain in use permanently.

This program would return the silver dollar and its subsidiary silver coinage of half-dollars, quarters and dimes to the American people in such a way as never to disappear again: all rises in the price of silver would be matched with rises in the quoted monetary value of the silver dollar and by derivation, of its subsidiary coinage: the silver half-dollar, the quarter and the dime.

This program would not cost the Federal Government – or the taxpayers that support it – one single cent! And yet, it would constitute the greatest gift to the American people that any US Congress could possibly invent, next only in importance to the return of the Gold Standard. The restoration of the silver currency of the United States to circulation, in parallel with the fiat FRN, can be considered the prelude to the revived Gold Standard.

By paying the Treasury a premium of 15% over the bullion price of silver, the American people would actually be subsidizing the Treasury’s work of monetization. This cost would be a one-time cost of obtaining real money of permanent value and utility, independent of the Fed and the banking system.

The re-monetization of the silver currency of the United States would create a new, vast market for physical silver and drive the price of silver very much higher. Those who might not be able to afford the purchase of monetized silver dollars could purchase half-dollars, quarters or dimes, which would provide the same security: they too, would rise with the rise in the price of silver. The rise in the price of silver would affect gold, which would also rise in price.

In order to facilitate larger transactions in silver, the Treasury could once again issue “Silver Certificates” attesting to the existence of silver held in its vaults.

With regard to the present faux-silver coinage in circulation, the American people are too intelligent to be deceived by it; this coinage may remain in circulation until the Treasury issues new coins for the purpose of making change in small transactions.

Though the restored silver currency may legally circulate, in practice it will be saved in its entirety and only be used in cases of emergency. Its “velocity of circulation” will be effectively close to zero.

******

Dorothy wore silver shoes, in L. Frank Baum’s classic book. Silver shoes on the yellow brick road! Dorothy symbolized then and still does today, the American people. Dorothy was unaware of the magic power of her silver shoes – and the American people are still equally unaware of the magic power of the re-monetized silver dollar: the power to recover America as the land of Hope and Opportunity!

What are the obstacles to regaining the silver dollar as money which can circulate in parallel with Federal Reserve Notes? The main obstacle will be the weapon of fear wielded by the entrenched interests of banking and the Federal Reserve, the intellectual centre of the banking cartel. These fiat money-mongers will rely on generating fear of the consequences of silver money so that they can maintain their huge fraud of fiat money FRNs; the Fed and the “Too Big to Fail” Banks are deathly afraid of the competition of silver. They know that the slightest crack in their monopoly of issuing fiat money will expose their scheme.

The Fed and the banking system will without doubt claim that “silver money is very costly”, but they will certainly not mention that the American people will fall over themselves to acquire it and even pay a premium of 15% to the Treasury, for the blessing of owning real money. Nor will the Fed and the banking system ever mention the gigantic costs that the depreciating FRNs have inflicted upon American savers; nor will they wish to recognize that the fiat FRN and the Fed are directly responsible for the present financial and economic destruction of the once great United States of America.

Another objection which will be put forward forcefully is that what the American economy requires is more spending on the part of the public. They will argue that more savings on the part of the American people spells doom for the economy: “More drink for the drunkard” is essential, according to the prevailing Keynesian thinking.

However, the humbug wizard has already been exposed and the Fed has lost its prestige forever. Toto has drawn the curtain! The State of Utah has already voiced its dissatisfaction with the present monetary system, by legislating in favor of gold and silver as legal tender money. If this project - monetizing the silver dollar by the Treasury’s giving it a numeric monetary value in FRNs, which immediately places it alongside the Federal Reserve Note as money – if this project comes to the notice of the several States of the Union, they together may force the issue.

The present policy is to “kick the can down the road” and postpone the final reckoning. But, the end of the road is already in sight! The condition is one of utter helplessness. The re-monetization of the silver dollar is the first step toward regaining health for the economy of America. Paper, fiat money will probably remain in use for some time, but the presence of the monetized silver dollar will force the Federal Reserve, the banking system and the US Government itself, to a more prudent financial course. It will be possible to regain financial health, because an alternative is available. Savings, the foundation of prosperity, will bloom as Americans opt for massive voluntary austerity by saving monetized silver dollars, half-dollars, quarters and dimes.

The banking system in the United States will be anxious to receive the massive savings in silver of the American people as deposits, but this will only be possible when the price of silver bullion has stabilized. Thus, the American people will have the upper hand; they will bend the banking system to their will by refusing to deposit their silver in the banks and thus force the banking system to reform itself to prudent monetary practice and desist from inflating by expanding credit out of nothing. After a stabilization of the banking system, the way would be open to a resumption of the Gold Standard.

Americans are today caught in a financial calamity with no parallel in history. They are being told this every day by every medium of communication. But they watch their crumbling economy in utter paralysis, because there is no alternative to which they may turn. The whole world is a mirror of their plight.

The restoration of the silver currency of the United States of America by the very simple procedure outlined here can provide the life-saving alternative. There is, at present, no other practical proposal for a viable action in the field of money. Perhaps there can be no other practical proposal? Perhaps a return to silver money is the only path out of the present crisis of civilization?

Let us hope that a political leader in the United States understands this message. The popular appeal of silver is universal; “silver shoes” will take that leader far – and the American people will follow him on that road!

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GATA Gold Rush #1

GATA Gold Rush #2

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SGS Notes: The big news this week was the downgrading of the US credit rating from AAA to AA+ with S&P. I won't fill the newsletter with that since it's been in all the news... But what we are about to watch is the coming spike in gold and silver prices due to this and other factors... The downgrading of the US Dollar will have a huge domino effect on other currencies around the world. So we will be seeing unbelievable volatility everywhere in the markets... and demand is about to go sky high.

Silver's Performance to Triple That of Gold over The Next 3-5 Years..

Eric Sprott

Silver is likely to be the investment of the decade in the same way that gold was the investment of the last one as both industrial and investment demand come to the fore, says Eric Sprott

According to Sprott Asset Management CEO, Eric Sprott, Silver is the investment of the decade. Not only is it likely to reach $50 an ounce by the end of the year but, he says, over the next three to five years, it's performance is likely to treble that of gold's.

Speaking on Mineweb.com's Metals Weekly podcast, Sprott said, "We've been huge proponents of gold over the last 11 years, and we've been involved in silver over that same time period but beginning about a year ago it became extremely evident to us that the investment demand for silver was massively understated."

This move also appears to be occurring in India, where festival celebrants, deterred by high gold prices have been buying silver ornaments as gifts. (See: Silver puts gold in the shade.)

He adds, as a result of this, the ratio between the two metals is likely to get back to a more "appropriate" level around 16:1 - it is currently around 37:1 and only in June last year it was sitting around the 70:1 level.

"If one looked at the silver and gold sales as an example of the US Mint, so far this year, people have put the same dollars into silver as they've put into gold - which can't carry on with the price being 38:1 - you just can't have the same amount of money going in. We see the same thing in the ETFs - the silver ETFs have been growing while the gold ETFs so far this year, have declined," he says.

One of the main reasons for this, according to Sprott is that more and more people are viewing gold, and now silver, as the reserve currency and given the state of the world, there is a shift from paper to hard currencies.

It is not, however, just Sprott who sees this shift toward hard currencies. The state of Utah, recently signed a law which has made it the first U.S. state to recognize federally issued gold and silver coins as legal tender.

Asked why there is likely to be such a large relative outperformance, Sprott says, "the fundamentals for the two metals are entirely different. There is huge industrial demand for silver, there's not much industrial demand for gold. It's interesting when you look at how many dollars of gold are produced in a year and what's available for saving, and how many ounces of silver are produced per year, and how many of those ounces are available for investment, the ratio is something like there are 10 times more gold available for investment in dollars every year, than there is silver. So if the guy is just as happy to own silver as gold, the fundamentals are going to diverge markedly here."

With the growing industrial uses for the metal in, among other areas, photovoltaic cells, and the medical field (for its antibacterial properties) on top of the growing investment demand, higher prices could result in some substitution but, according to Sprott this is not really a concern as the dollar value of the silver is almost immaterial to the total cost of the product.

Any clouds to the silver lining?

Asked if there are any potential hiccoughs to the run for silver that he is predicting, Sprott says that while there are a few things that would cause him to change his mind, he does not really see any of them coming to pass any time soon

The first cloud, according to Sprott would be fiscal and monetary responsibility by governments and central banks but, he says, this is certainly not evident at present and would go so far as to say, " ever since we had QE1, the reason to own gold and silver has just changed materially here because of the irresponsibility of the central banks in the world

The other potential hiccough, he says would be some kind of massive mania type blow off, " you have to take your best guesses when something like that might end - I don't see it as being anywhere near that stage at this point."

And, finally he says, "The other thing that would have an impact is if, ultimately, gold and silver in fact are named reserve currencies - then we will all have accomplished what we're after and you may or may not need it neat because it's now money."

Where to from here?

According to Sprott Silver will move to $50 dollars this year before powering ahead, "If you ask me in the three to five year time frame, obviously I think it's going to go north of $100 simply because we'll get that 16:1 ratio and I certainly see gold going a lot higher, so that's my outlook here and therefore the rewards for owning silver and the equities will be quite outstanding."

Quote of the Week                               

“By this means (fractional reserve banking) government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft.”

--John Maynard Keynes
The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1920

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We Are at the Cusp of a Global Move into Gold and Silver

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Jim Sinclair Interview
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SGS Notes: We are watching a political theater unfold that is certain to have a dramatic and lasting effect on silver and gold prices well into the future.

Gold and Silver Beyond the Limit

Peter Schiff

Perhaps the debt ceiling should be renamed the "national debt target," for it seems Washington is always trying to reach it. One could say it's their only reliable, time-tested achievement. And without fail, upon reaching their national debt target, they promptly extend it further in order to discover how quickly it can once again be attained!

While I have little doubt that the ceiling will be raised, my readers have been curious as to the implications for gold in each of the debt and "default" scenarios possible after August 2nd. This month, I'll outline how each outcome could affect the price of gold and silver.

BEARISH GOLD CASE #1: DEBT CEILING NOT RAISED - ENOUGH CUTS MADE TO AVERT DEFAULT

My readers know that this scenario is actually what the US government should do. The debt ceiling should not be increased and massive cuts must be made. We know this outcome is extremely unlikely - it would require not only a resolute steadfastness to sound money, but also a 180-degree change of philosophical beliefs by the majority of Congress (and the American public) overnight.

Yet in our fantasy world, if this did occur, it would be bearish for gold. It would mean the US government was shrinking, that debts were being paid, that the entire US economy was becoming more solvent and viable. Gold would be less important to own, as the risk of both currency crises and sovereign debt crises would be lower.

BEARISH GOLD CASE #2: DEBT CEILING RAISED - FEDERAL BUDGET BALANCED

If the debt ceiling is raised in order to avert imminent default, but the spare time is used to truly bring the federal budget into balance, the US economy might still be saved. But when I say "balanced," I mean it. This would mean not only eliminating the entire $1.5 trillion deficit, but also leaving enough of a surplus to cover all outstanding debt and unfunded liabilities. For perspective, Senator Rand Paul's proposal to but $500 billion a year, widely considered more radical than landing a man on Mars, would only address 1/3 of the annual deficit - it would take cuts many times that for the US to return to solvency.

But let's be optimistic: if the budget could be balanced, then the fact that the debt ceiling was being increased yet again would not be so awful. Since the US government's fiscal policies would be completely reversed, we could expect to start seeing a strengthening of the dollar (so long as Bernanke stopped the printing presses too) and a weakening of gold and silver.

However, this is just as much of a pipe dream as the first scenario. No government in history has dug itself out of the hole we now face without defaulting. If Congress even tried to enact a plan like this, people would be rioting in the streets over their lost entitlements. And we'd suddenly have millions of unemployed soldiers. Not exactly a recipe for peace and prosperity.

BULLISH GOLD CASE #1: DEBT CEILING NOT RAISED - US DEFAULTS ON TREASURY DEBT

This is the scenario that President Obama and Secretary Geithner are threatening. They claim that if the debt ceiling is not raised, they will have to immediately begin defaulting on Treasury interest payments. This is rather unlikely, as interest payments make up only 10% of spending, but let's say they stop paying anyway.

If they do this, market interest rates for US debt would skyrocket, meaning the only buyer left at rates the Treasury could afford would be the Fed. In other words, if they default on August 2nd, QE3 will start on August 3rd. Of course, a default would be absolutely devastating to the dollar and a boon for gold and silver. Global confidence in the invincibility of the United States would be shattered, and the underlying problem of excessive spending would still remain to be addressed.

Another interesting scenario would be if Congress didn't raise the debt ceiling and the Treasury just kept borrowing anyway. It's not like the Executive Branch follows laws scrupulously nowadays. What if they just ignored it? Someone could challenge the act in federal courts, but the odds are often in the President's favor. In this case, gold and silver might experience less of an initial spike, but their long-term prospects would be elevated as the world recognized that we were one step closer to becoming a banana republic.

BULLISH GOLD CASE #2: DEBT CEILING RAISED - SYMBOLIC CUTS IN SPENDING

This scenario is by far the most likely outcome of the debt talks in Washington; they will raise the debt ceiling and make spending cuts which sound substantial, but which only mange to slow the accumulation of new debt.

The plans on the table suggest cutting a couple trillion in cumulative spending over the next decade. In other words, they propose cuts that only reduce deficits by about 10-20%; they do nothing to reduce actual debt levels. So if these talks are successful, then instead of a $1.5 trillion deficit each year, perhaps we only suffer a $1.2 trillion deficit. Meanwhile, the debt continues growing. This is "success" in Washington.

Clearly, this is bullish for precious metals. It means more of the same - more spending, more debt, and necessarily more money-printing.

Over the past 50 years, the US debt ceiling has been raised over 70 times. In other words, there is no ceiling at all - it is as fictitious as the idea that central planning works, or that the US has anything resembling a "free market."

So, I guess it stands to reason that regardless of the debt ceiling increase, it is likely that the US will be downgraded by one or more ratings agencies. The effect will be massive because the world's largest pension, mutual, and sovereign wealth funds typically mandate investment only in AAA-rated securities. A downgrade of US debt means those funds must immediately sell off their primary reserve asset. The effect of this cannot be overstated, and gold would be the first and best refuge for an onslaught of orphaned capital.

Despite gold once again hitting new highs, I can only recommend my readers continue to keep a healthy portion of their portfolio in precious metals. Given the sad realities of the US fiscal and monetary situation, it's prudent to assume that nothing will be solved by August 2nd.

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Dr. Jeff Lewis

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MarketWatch

U.S. debt ceiling crisis only a minor player in gold and silver prices
MineWeb

The Buzz Around Gold Is Growing Louder
Jeff Clark

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Ron Paul to Bernanke:
Is Gold Money?

Eric Sprott, of
Sprott Asset Management

Financial Sense
Newshour

" Silver Set to 'Explode' "

Bullion Blows Up Banksters

Jeff Nielsen

When precious metals commentators (including myself) talk about the pathological fear/hatred which bankers exhibit toward gold and silver, we typically focus on their aversion to higher bullion prices – as being the “canary in the coal mine” which warns us that banker money-printing has spun out of control.

There is, however, an even more fundamental antagonism which the paper-pushing “elites” feel toward precious metals: the simple act of holding bullion is effectively an involuntary “de-leveraging” of the endless $trillions in bankster Ponzi-schemes which have totally contaminated nearly all Western economies.

Readers should not confuse my title with the popular “take down JP Morgan” campaign spearheaded by a few so-called “silver vigilantes”. When I talk about bankers being “blown up” by bullion, this is an entirely passive process. First of all, our purchasing of bullion (as has been often explained) is a defensive move to “insure” our dwindling wealth against the currency-dilution inflicted upon us by the excessive money-printing of the bankers. Secondly, the “harm” caused to the bankers by bullion is indirect, and entirely a function of their own excessive behavior.

Let me quickly cover the first premise by once again reviewing the monetary abomination known as “fractional reserve banking”. In the typical, modern “fractional reserve system”, each time we deposit a (paper) dollar with a bank (or invest it), our eternally greedy bankers are allowed to effectively print-up ten more dollars, loan them out into the economy (or “invest” them) – and thus that $1 dollar suddenly becomes $11, with the other $10 dollars being a windfall created (literally) out of thin air, which has neither been “earned”, nor does it have anything at all “backing” its value.

This ten-to-one dilution of our currency – which is nothing less than (legal) systemic fraud – is precisely how the Federal Reserve has been able to reduce the value of the U.S. dollar by roughly 98% (over its 98-year existence). But even stealing at this rapacious rate was not enough to sate the greed of the 21st century Wall Street bankster.

They directed their spineless servants in Washington to change a vast number of rules (and eliminate even more “safeguards”) allowing these banksters to increase that (already obscene) 10:1 leverage to an utterly insane level of greater than 30:1 – which turned the entire U.S. financial system (and most of its debt and equity markets) into a collection of hopelessly unstable Ponzi-schemes. This leverage-insanity has culminated in the creation of the banksters’ private casino: the $1.5 quadrillion derivatives market – by itself more than twenty times bigger than the entire global economy.

Thus when a small minority of individuals engage in the “defensive” strategy of buying bullion, we are protecting ourselves in two ways. First of all, we are isolating our waning wealth in a form which the banksters cannot dilute/debauch with their money-printing. Secondly, we are accumulating this insurance against the inevitable financial collapse when the bankster Ponzi-schemes finally implode. There is, however, an indirect “virtuous circle” which is set in motion by the simple act of buying bullion, which (to the best of my knowledge) is not being discussed by other commentators – either in the mainstream media, or within this sector itself.

Let us back-up to the basic premise upon which fractional-reserve banking exists: we invest or deposit a dollar with a banker, and then they are legally allowed to dilute that dollar by anywhere from a factor of 10:1 or 30:1. However, each and every time that we take one of our dollars and invest it into precious metals, we are breaking that cycle of dilution (and currency-destruction).

As this purchasing of bullion increases, we thus began to weaken the cycle of serial currency-dilution, and effectively de-leverage our own financial systems. Note that this “involuntary de-leveraging” of Wall Street (in particular) has been made 100% necessary due to the complete failure of servile politicians and corrupt regulators to rein-in the 30:1 insanity of Wall Street. Indeed, after only a brief drop-off (when there were no “chumps” available to take their bets), all reports indicate that the Wall Street vampires are just as leveraged today as they were before they almost destroyed the global financial system the first time – except that this insane leverage is now concentrated in even fewer hands.

This means that as individuals accumulate bullion to personally insure and insulate their wealth from the fractional-reserve piracy of modern banking, that collectively our actions are insuring and insulating our entire economies against the inevitable economic carnage as the paper-bubbles collapse – including all of the worthless, fiat currencies themselves.

In fact, I only began to consciously explore this line of reasoning myself when I was admiring the brilliance of Hugo Salinas Price’s movement to re-institute silver money as a “parallel currency” in Mexico. Critics of this scheme have argued that most of the silver money being created would quickly disappear: people would spend their paper money, and hang onto their (higher quality) silver money.

My rebuttal to that has been that this is the beauty of Salinas Price’s proposal. Effectively, instead of Mexicans having paper “savings accounts”, where they give their pesos to bankers – and then suffer the economic rape of currency-dilution – Mexicans would have “silver savings accounts”, 100% immune to the monetary depravity of bankers. I then added to that by pointing out the cumulative effect of this: permanently reducing the percentage of our wealth which is under the control of bankers, and (simultaneously) permanently reducing our vulnerability (i.e. leverage) when these paper-pirates (yet again) destroy themselves (and our system) with their insatiable greed and reckless gambling.

The mainstream media have been programmed with their own rebuttal. They call such behavior “hoarding”. This is nothing less than a perversion of semantics. In fact, for more than 4,000 years most of humanity has held their “savings” in the form of gold or silver, and billions of people do so today, primarily in Asian economies.

What has been “savings” for 4,000 years does not become “hoarding” simply because the mainstream media chooses to be an accomplice of the banksters in helping them steal our money through their fractional-reserve Ponzi-schemes.

This supplies ordinary citizens with yet one more motivation to insure a large percentage of their wealth by converting it to (“physical”) gold or silver. Not only are we protecting ourselves individually, but collectively we are engaging in the “bank reform” which our cowardly and corrupt political leaders have failed to do.

This means that each and every time you hear some media talking-head parrot the words “hoarding silver”, you can immediately translate that to mean “insuring our financial system”. The fact that it will ultimately help to “blow up the banksters” (as a consequence of their own greed) is merely a fringe benefit.

Quote of the Week                               

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Bix Weir Interview

SGS Notes: :Yes, silver took it on the chin this week. What we have seen in the dramatic price drop for silver and gold has been a carefully orchestrated manipulation of prices by some powerful folks in high places… If you have been following the SGS newsletter for very long, you would know that we've been reporting on this faithfully from the beginning. It's been going on for several years now… and with all the exposé going on by some honest and persistent men in the industry, the fire is heating up under this issue. So this week I am devoting the newsletter to the various commentaries from these people who have reported the truth about what's happening. There's a lot to 'feast on' this week.

This is NOT a normal 'market correction' as some would have us think…Remember that investing in physical silver and gold is not the same as paper … yet the dynamics in paper have a dramatic effect on physical. (Also noteworthy this week… huge difference in Gold:Silver ratio… last week was 32:1

Bear in mind, that all of manipulation forcing prices downward have long-term effects on this market beyond the prices… it creates a disincentive for mines to produce and refine silver… a disincentive for research & development on new sources for silver. Consequently, there is a very real shortage of phyical metals in the market…

And, again, the warning is issue repeatedly: Hold on for the Long Haul. This is NOT the time to SELL… it is the time to ACQUIRE.

Silver Shield: The Final Fight

This is the final fight of physical and paper silver, so hold the line and get ready to take it to the enemy. The Elite have literally thrown everything they have at the silver markets to try to make silver investors weak in the knees and cry uncle. Like a bully trying to take your lunch money by twisting your arm.

This can only end one of two ways; you give up and the banksters laugh or you stand up and say enough! These tactics may work on some paper traders who are literally forced by margin calls. For those who have listened to me, and bought only physical, this recent manipulation is only a subsidized discount to buy more, for less.

The CME has raised the margin requirements an unprecedented 5 times in less than 2 weeks to force higher and higher costs on paper traders to force them to sell. The higher the costs and the lower the price of the underlying asset is a toxic combination in the paper market.

I saw this happen in the 2008 rout, where they took it down 60% in a matter of months. It was the worst time to be a silver holder, but I knew the real story and held on when everything in the world said get out. I held on and even added to my position to then see a return of close to 500% in the next 2 years.

Read Entire Article Here

Collusion by Fed Officials and Commodity Exchange Heads Has Its Intended Effect
Trader Dan

I find it amazing how effectively these people can coordinate their policies with the heads of the commodity exchanges and their pals at the big banks who are perennial shorts in the markets and have now managed to pluck the money out of hundreds of thousands of commodity trading accounts enriching the big banks (government sponsored hedge funds) in the process. Nothing like a freely operating financial system where the playing field is completely level and no one has an advantage over the next guy!

By their continued hiking of silver margins, the exchange effectively removed the liquidity in the silver market that the smaller specs have been providing. That left the market vulnerable to severe drops in price as these specs exited due to financial constraints which then removed a source of potential bids under the market as the CFTC commitments report has shown the small specs to be good buyers in the silver market. Even the bigger hedge funds are impacted by such a sharp hike in margins as their losses in silver then precipitate even more losses across other assorted commodity markets due to the cascading effect of mounting paper losses and margin calls and the need to raise cash.

As the silver market tanked the exchange officials could then warn about Clearinghouse integrity and have more reasons to drive margins even higher as they point to the increased volatility, volatility which I might add, they created themselves by hiking margins to such an extreme degree. Read Full Article Here

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• Longer wait times for our inventory orders
  
  
• Higher Premiums, especially for Silver Eagles
  
  
• Product sell-out (from our suppliers)
  

Honoring All Our Mothers…

SGS Notes: The crazy ride continued this week…the week began Monay with a sharp rise from $46.86 to$47.88, then Tuesday spike up into the high $49s… closely pressing the $50 threshhold…then back down by end of day to just over $45. By Wednesday night, the price was back to the mid $48 level, continuing strongly in that range until close of week Friday night. The ratio has remained constant at 32/1… but we've also seen Gold do a huge $58 spike this week. The dollar went to 73.2 in the wake of the S&P downgrading the US credit rating down to C - lower than Mexico… We've had several inquiries this week about whether silver is still a good buy at $50+… This week's newsletter will be addressing that…

Psst! Letting you in on a little 'secret'… if you watch our Facebook page for SGS, (see link at right) you will see a flurry of activity of postings on Fri/Sat … this is because we post a lot of articles and links that we come across while preparing for the Newsletter, but 'reject' for newsletter publication… lots more extra stuff there, folks!

The Reason Silver Has Been Rising Faster Than Gold
Analysis of the different advance which has occurred in the silver price vis-à-vis gold in the past few months where the former has substantially outperformed the latter.
Author: Julian Phillips, MineWeb

Silver is breaking new records at around $40 and gold is touching new highs of close to $1,460. Looking back, over the past few years we have seen gold rise from around $312 to $1,460 a rise of 4.68 times and silver from around $6 to $40 a rise of 6.67 times.

But this does not give a clear picture, so we went back over the last year and what did we see? Since early 2009, gold has moved from $900 to $1,460, a respectable 62%. Over the same period silver has moved from $10 to nearly $40 a remarkable 400%. Why the difference in relative performance?

Both metals have moved as money. Gold and silver Exchange Traded Funds have attracted massive investments in the developed world where trust in the monetary system is far higher than it is in the emerging world. But it was the underlying gold and silver that attracted investors. Waning confidence in the value of paper currencies gave way to demand for precious metals as a store of value retainers for investors.

Gold and silver have substantial differences as value retainers which help us to identify why the two metals have differed so much in performance.

Gold is and has always been the 'senior' monetary metal held by Central Banks as money until 1971 and after that as a valuable reserve asset in the vaults of central banks.
Silver was rejected as money and as a reserve asset by the mid-fifties, despite it being treated as money throughout the ages before that.

Both gold and silver have been attacked as money through 'official' sales from the seventies until last year. But gold was sold to undermine the reality that it is money. Silver was sold out from reserves almost completely by central banks discarding it as money, completely.

Apart from a brief period when Egypt was at its height and supplies of silver less than those of gold, gold has always been in far shorter supply than silver and considered far more valuable than silver.

Silver in the past few decades has been seen as a commodity, mined mainly as a by-product of base metal mining, with only 30% mined in a pure silver mine.

Most silver is consumed whereas gold is not, which will continue to be the case until less expensive substitutes are found. This will only happen at far higher prices still.

GOLD AS AN INVESTMENT

Gold has always been the precious metal of choice for wealthy individuals, institutions and central banks. It has never been abandoned as such. Even when "Official" selling was at its peak, central banks sold only what they thought was sufficient to add credibility to the paper currency they were pushing to the centre of the system, first to add credibility to the dollar then after 1999 to the euro. With those tasks completed, Central Banks are now either holders or buyers of gold.

The amount sold in most cases was around 20%, but in the case of the uninspired then-Chancellor Brown of the U.K.'s case, half of Britain's reserves were sold. The largest holders of gold sold none or only small amounts. So while it was underpriced and we believe still is, did not see its price 'crushed' completely.

The path back to investment acceptance is a slow one and a long one with most of the journey still to come. We believe that we are on the brink of major changes in price levels in 2011 and beyond.

SILVER AS AN INVESTMENT

Silver had not really been an investment metal until 2004 and not a significant one until 2009.

It was a commodity metal in so short a supply that the Hunt brothers of Texas felt they could corner the market. In 1979, they took the silver price from its high of $8 an ounce [it had doubled since it stood at $4 an ounce in the mid- 1970s' already] to $50 an ounce by the early 1980's. It then fell all the way back to $5 an ounce thereafter as the Hunt Brothers found they were unable to sell the silver until prices had fallen back to those levels where they stayed until October 2003. Until 2009, it was relegated to the sidelines as an investment metal.

It started to regain popularity as an investment metal because it began to be considered as "poor man's gold" as the gold price rose out of reach of the poorer investment classes.

For instance, in India until its middle classes began to grow substantially, 70% of all gold bought was bought by the agricultural sector, whose income was directly related to the quality of the monsoon rains. When profits were good, they found their way into property and into gold, As the price rose, the quantity of gold available to such people fell. Then $1,500 bought five ounces of gold, but with gold at $1,460, it only buys just over 1 ounce of gold.

In India, precious metals are used in commercial transactions so the divisibility of silver relative to gold was far greater and more flexible. It also remained affordable in larger quantities. After all, now one ounce of gold buys 36.5 ounces of silver. So, silver remains affordable far lower down the economic ladder than gold does. It therefore can attract a far wider market than gold does currently at retail levels. Bearing in mind that precious metals are attracting a huge and growing market in the emerging parts of the world, the demand, as a wealth protector, at the retail end of the market is expanding rapidly.

CATCH-UP

It would therefore be wrong to still categorize silver as a monetary metal. Its day will come, but not until its price is much higher and not until paper currencies have lost considerably more credibility than at present.

The most difficult part of silver's rise as a wealth protector has been from October 2004 to October 2008, from when its price moved from $5 an ounce to a peak of over $20 an ounce then to fall back to than less $10 an ounce before taking off on its current path. The fall coincided with the onset of the 'credit-crunch.

All the while, demand from the photographic sector has waned. More importantly, the uses of silver have morphed from discretionary demand to a need. Even in a downturn, the demand for silver will remain strong as its uses are considered vital now.

So as a non-monetary, more volatile precious metal, its future then was far cloudier than now. The transition from those days to 'poor man's gold was its re-birth as an investment metal. While we believe it has now returned as such to stay, it still has a lot of catching up to do. By catching up we mean that it still has to return to the concept fully, that it is a lower category investment metal respected from institutions [eventually by central banks] as well as the retail end of the market.

Gold is already at that point. This does not mean that the gold price has reached a ceiling of any kind. It does mean that the gold price will rise relative to the value of currencies from now on with its metallic qualities being far in the background. Silver is still a long way off from that point.

Julian Phillips is a long time specialist analyst for gold and silver and is the principal contributor to the Gold Forecaster - www.goldforecaster.com - and Silver Forecaster- www.silverforecaster.com - websites and newsletters

Quote of the Week                               

• Longer wait times for our inventory orders
  
  
• Higher Premiums, especially for Silver Eagles
  
  
• Product sell-out (from our suppliers)
  

SGS Notes: Whew! This week was a wild ride. (Did you notice the big drop in the ratio again?) I'm going to share a lot of info in the newsletter this week. As usual, the experts and economic advisors have been prolific in their writing the past 2 weeks. The S&P downgrading of the US credit rating was a HUGE factor in the numbers we're seeing. So read what you can now, bear with me, and stash this away for digesting the rest of the information as you are able. Let the dust settle a little this weekend and celebrate the MOST momentous occasion in history.

Your Money's No Good Here
Richard Zimmerman, Berkshire Asset Management

Fear premium seems like an understatement following the Standard and Poor's downgraded outlook for US debt. Markets reacted in kind, with and the threat of losing a AAA rating brought another round of potential haven seekers to gold and silver. What is it about the rating that is so special, and why should this change anything?

Let's get one thing clear - there were a few stories that reported the US' credit rating was lowered from neutral to negative. The Ratings Service actually lowered their outlook for US debt. The reasoning? They lack confidence that Washington will get the federal deficit under control in the next two years or so. The long term outlook suggests that there is a roughly 30 percent likelihood that the US will lose its current investment rating. That rating was actually reaffirmed in yesterday's Standard and Poor's release, but with paragraph after paragraph of concerns over the future growth and expenses for this western superpower.

The AAA rating is endangered by what the Standard and Poor's views as "very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness and the path to addressing these is not clear to us" - exactly the kinds of things that have been moving more than a little investment in precious metals. Unlike the US dollar, I have often reiterated that gold and silver are difficult to manipulate with changes in policy. However, the key issue here is the cracks in the foundation.

Since the start of the global recession, it was not uncommon to hear that a country was in trouble on the credit front. Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland - there is no shortage of areas of potential weakness. The thing is - it seemed a lot less dire when it was somewhere else. The idea that the Euro zone would have a country or two with fiscal weakness is one thing, but an industrialized nation of this size? The US is practically the backbone of a global economy, and one of the largest single economies in the framework of the world.

Perhaps it is more unsettling because of the scope of foreign investment in the United States. As of February 2011, China held over $1 trillion in US treasuries. Japan had a cool $890 billion. The United Kingdom and other nations held more modest levels, around $200 billion or so, for a grand total of $4,474,300,000. (1) Of course, Japan's finance minister was quick to state that US treasuries remained attractive, despite the warning against the US. China was less magnanimous. Their foreign ministry urged policy makers in Washington to move to protect investors in their debt. Besides debt obligations, foreign governments are probably eyeing their ample US dollar reserves. While it is anyone's guess how much of China's foreign currency reserves are dollar denominated, it cannot be comfortable on any level to see the recent troubles in the US devalue the currency. Uncertainty in the future of the US and the overall perceived risk of default has as much of a chance to drive investors from the US dollar and into other assets.

The Treasury Department's projection is that the debt-ceiling is within reach, to be breached as early as May. Default could come as early as this summer.

Summary

The US is unlikely to see the kind of real growth that the situation requires to sort out its massive deficit. Right now, the economic crisis has pared growth, and playing an eternal shell game with the fiscal deficit doesn't seem close to over. The diminished outlook in a superpower like the United States is enough to rattle even the most stalwart investor's cage. That means the chance for more investor uncertainty, and that usually means fresh highs in precious metals. The threat from Standard and Poor's was a surprise to a lot of people. Everyone seems to be aware that things are not perfect, and that public finances are relatively tattered. The short term key will be how people feel this credit ruin stands up to global counterparts. If the US is viewed as the 'best of the worst' as it were, this initial gain in gold and silver will likely be met with some pressure. If all it does is create talking points ahead of re-election promises then people are less likely to assuaged, and that means a harder currency than a feeble buck.

1. http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

Quote of the Week                               

Yes, we like Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged… which, by the way is out in theaters…We saw it last week, Part 1. Check it out here: http://www.atlasshruggedpart1.com/
Just picked up a copy of the book at Costco to re-read.